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Through our economics and policy impact research, we build causal inference, econometric, and statistical models that demonstrate the impact of ENDS product use, including the JUUL System, on a wide range of key population-level outcomes.
This includes evaluating the impact of proposed and implemented policies and interventions such as enhanced access controls, Tobacco 21, and bans on ENDS products to understand how they impact ENDS use and/or cigarette sales.
Evaluating the impact of availability of ENDS products on the tobacco market
Identifying the impact of ENDS product availability in markets can help policymakers understand the role of alternative choices in the commercial tobacco product market and better evaluate the impact of harm reduction products and policies.
A study sought to evaluate if the JUUL System’s market entry in Canada reduced cigarette sales in that market. Researchers found that the JUUL System’s market entry likely decreased cigarette sales, especially in urban markets.
Within the first 12 months of market entry, availability of the JUUL System likely led to a 1.5% decrease on average in store-level cigarette sales volume in one retailer chain. This could translate to over 400 million fewer cigarettes sold in Canada within the first year of the JUUL System’s market entry.
Modelling the impact of state and federal policies on key outcomes, as well as unintended consequences
In the fall of 2019, several U.S. states passed short-term bans on the sale of ENDS, partially in response to an outbreak of illnesses that public health bodies concluded were strongly linked to Vitamin E acetate, an additive in THC vaping products. Using modelling based on state ENDS bans, commercial data on cigarette sales, and control variables, a study sought to assess how such state-level ENDS bans in three U.S. states may have impacted cigarette sales.
Cigarette sales in states banning ENDS were significantly higher than would have been observed otherwise. A full ban on ENDS products resulted in weekly per capita cigarette sales that were 8.3% higher than would have been expected in Massachusetts. Banning just flavored ENDS products resulted in higher than expected weekly per capita cigarette sales in Washington (4.6%) and Rhode Island (5.0%).